Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices in the United States fell toward the end of April, with producer offers dropping from $975/metric ton to $952/metric ton ex-works (EXW) between April 11 and April 25, according to Kallanish. The earlier higher prices were largely driven by uncertainty following the introduction of a 25% tariff on all steel imports into the US.

However, traders had previously warned that the $975/ton levels did not accurately reflect actual market demand and were likely to be short-lived. Buyer inquiries have remained stable, preventing a sharp decline in prices.

Meanwhile, the US automotive sector, a major consumer of hot-rolled coils, is projected to increase sales by 4.6% year-on-year in April to 1.395 million units, according to Cox Automotive. Nevertheless, this figure is expected to be 12% lower than sales in March 2025, despite an equal number of trading days. Analysts note that the surge in March car sales was partly fueled by the announcement of the 25% tariff on imported vehicles. Since then, buyer sentiment in the automotive market has stabilized.

A drop in vehicle inventory levels — from 3 million to 2.7 million units in March — could also support renewed purchases of rolled steel by automakers.

Globally, hot-rolled coil prices showed mixed trends. In India, HRC prices rose by $8 in the second half of April, reaching $600/ton FOB by April 25. Steel product prices in India posted gains in the first month of the new fiscal year, although analysts caution that this optimism may wane in the coming month.

In Southern Europe, HRC prices declined by €5 to €540/ton CIF in the second half of April.

Meanwhile, Chinese hot-rolled coil prices remained stable at $470/ton FOB. The price decline in China's HRC market, ongoing since October 2024, appears to have bottomed out. This is supported by a weekly increase in May futures prices for hot-rolled steel on the Shanghai exchange, which rose by $7 to reach $446–449/ton.

However, traders remain cautious about any sustained recovery. Last week, October delivery contracts for hot-rolled coils were sold at $439/ton, reflecting subdued expectations. Market sentiment was dampened further after the April 25 meeting of the Communist Party of China’s Politburo, where no significant economic measures were announced.

In related developments, China's steel output increased by 4.6% year-on-year in March 2025 to 92.84 million tons, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. This marked the highest monthly output in the past 10 months.