In the first half of April, hot-rolled coil prices in Southern Europe fell by €20 per ton to €545 per ton CIF as of April 11. According to Kallanish, this decline is attributed to the large volumes of unsold imported goods in European ports, especially from Vietnam.

European steel producers are concerned that if hot-rolled coil prices rise further, foreign-made coils may become more appealing to buyers, even with the tariffs.

Vietnam exceeded its duty-free import quota for hot-rolled coils into the EU in Q1, resulting in an additional tariff of 8-10% on Vietnamese products. This tariff is expected to rise in Q2 after the European Commission adjusts the quota mechanism in March.

Meanwhile, demand for hot-rolled coils in major consuming industries has yet to recover. In the EU, new car registrations fell by 2.6% in January and 3.4% in February, totaling 831.2 thousand and 853.67 thousand units, respectively.

However, in March, S&P Global revised its forecast for EU car production in 2025, increasing it by 63 thousand units. This is attributed to the European Commission's revision of EU CAFE rules, which extends the current environmental standards for internal combustion engine vehicles until 2028.

In the United States, the price of hot-rolled coils remained unchanged at $975 per ton EXW as of April 11. U.S. steel mills are holding back from raising prices further, as there is potential for imports to resume. Consequently, the market has reached a local price peak that is sustainable.

In March, U.S. new car sales reached 1.56 million units, according to Cox Automotive, surpassing the initial forecast of 1.43 million units. This increase is due to the imposition of an additional 25% tariff on car imports to the U.S. starting April 2. As a result, the 2025 sales forecast has been revised upward to 17.8 million units, compared to the previous estimate of 15.9 million units.

However, Cox Automotive anticipates a slowdown in sales in the second half of the year due to rising import duties on spare parts, which will raise the cost of new cars in the U.S. market.

In India, hot-rolled coil offers rose by $22 per ton in the first half of April, reaching $592 per ton FOB as of April 11. This price increase is linked to the start of the new fiscal year on April 1, which generally drives up steel prices.

In China, the price of hot-rolled coils dropped to $470 per ton FOB as of April 11, compared to $480 per ton FOB on March 28. Increased public investment and steel exports have not been sufficient to reduce the surplus steel supply caused by overproduction, prompting steel mills to lower prices further.

China's steel exports rose by 6.3% year-on-year to 27.43 million tons in January-March 2025, marking the highest level since 2016.