In April, steel output is likely to fall amid uncertainty over exports and domestic demand
China’s steelmaking companies increased steel production by 4.6% in March 2025 compared to March 2024 to 92.84 million tons, the highest level in the last 10 months. This is evidenced by the data of the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), Reuters reports.

The average daily steel production during the month amounted to 2.99 million tons, compared to 2.82 million tons in January-February and 2.85 million tons in March 2024.

The production growth was supported by steady exports and the recovery of companies’ profitability. In March, about 53% of steelmakers were profitable, compared to only 25% a year ago. The expansion of the industrial sector and active external supplies partially offset the negative impact of the real estate crisis.

However, the production rate may slow down in April.

“Steelmakers are largely maintaining current production volumes, so we see limited room for further growth in steel production this month,” explained Pei Hao, senior analyst at Freight Investor Services’ Shanghai office.

Analysts note that steel exports may decline in April due to rising trade tensions between China and the United States. In addition, there are doubts about the stability of domestic demand.

“Steel exports may decline in April due to increased trade restrictions. We are also cautious about steel consumption in the infrastructure sector,” the expert added.

In Q1 2025, total steel production in China increased by 0.6% to 259.33 million tons.

China’s steelmaking companies reduced steel production by 1.7% year-on-year in 2024, producing 1.005 billion tons. This is the lowest figure in the last five years.

Experts note that 2024 is likely to be the last year when steel production in China exceeded 1 billion tons. In particular, in March, the country’s authorities announced plans to cut steel production as part of the restructuring of the steel industry.